Guest Post

CAN FORMER POLITICAL HOTSPOTS BECOME OPPORTUNITIES?

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Investors have many tools at their disposal to overcome obstacles when they explore new and emerging markets. One factor beyond their control, though, is the political environment. Thus when investors search for new markets, they often skip over countries and regions that have even a hint of political unrest.

While this seems generally a prudent course, not all political and economic transitions lead to chaos or war. Some countries learn from their growing pains. They can develop stable democracies with thriving economies that harbor investment opportunities, including those for futures markets.

Of course, there are hotspots where political unrest has seemed to eclipse potential or even established trading opportunities. But, when a country passes the “healthy skepticism” test, is it time to consider them?

Take, for instance, South Africa and Indonesia, which are examples of where opportunities can flourish after major periods of political unrest.

While the politics of South Africa are evolving, so is its economy. Foreign investment has grown substantially in part because of the good business infrastructure, which includes the futures markets.

In 2001, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) acquired the South African Futures Exchange (Safex), which resulted in a hub for equities and derivatives trading. (The JSE retained the Safex branding for the commodity and equity derivatives markets.) The commodities market provides price discovery and risk management for grains, precious metals and crude oil markets. The financial derivatives market offers a platform for trading futures and options.

Since the merger, the JSE has taken many steps to open itself up to international trading such as adopting the FIX electronic protocol for trading and working with third-party suppliers of hosted market connectivity. The JSE offers electronic trading, clearing and settlement in equities, financial and agricultural derivatives and other associated instruments.

Another former hotspot is Indonesia, which has youthful demographics, sustainable domestic consumption, and an $813 billion economy that is expected to expand by approximately 6% this year—roughly the same rate as 2011. For futures, there are two trading venues —the Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFE) and the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), which serve as the trading venues for indigenous commodities. The JFE and ICDX are aggressive competitors, particularly in the gold and crude palm oil markets. The ICDX is also a trading venue for coal, natural gas, cocoa, coffee and tin. The JFE and ICDX support electronic trading and a variety of market connectivity options that provide widespread access for overseas investors.

While no indexes exist to help measure and predict political unrest, it is clear that major shocks to the political system will reverberate through the economy, including the futures markets. Some turmoil may even halt trading on the major exchanges.

Yet some of today’s hotspots could eventually become attractive investment opportunities once the political factors have settled into somewhat predictable patterns. When once tumultuous countries and regions stabilize, they are likely to need more foreign investors and, as long as there are opportunities, investors will oblige.

To make the most of those opportunities, investors will need good partnerships with stable trading and investment management firms on the ground. They will also need IT providers that know the region and have established inroads into the country’s current networking and IT infrastructure.

THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF INDEMNIFICATION

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Guest Author: Larry Thompson, managing director and general counsel of The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation

I had the pleasure recently to speak at SunGard’s New York City Day and focused, in part, on a little known provision of Dodd-Frank, known as indemnification, which is gaining traction as a key issue in the broader debate for enhanced international regulatory harmonization. Swap data repositories (SDRs) are essential to bringing transparency to the market, and indemnification is intended to ensure the confidentiality and safety of data they hold and report—a laudable goal by any standards. But this provision may prove to be more complex – and potentially damaging – than envisioned.

The requirement says that U.S.-based SDRs need to obtain indemnification from foreign regulators prior to sharing critical market data with them. The fact is the overseas regulators we have met with have confirmed they are unlikely to enter into these agreements for two reasons:

  1. The extraterritorial mandate is inconsistent with traditions and legal structures in Europe, and
  2. Many global regulators are already following policies and procedures to safeguard and share data based on guidelines established by the OTC Derivatives Regulators Forum (ODRF).

We’ve been playing close attention to this situation because if the indemnification provision is not revised or eliminated, it has the potential to undermine the ability of regulators and market participants to obtain a comprehensive and unfragmented view of the global derivatives marketplace.

The indemnification requirement will threaten the ability of repositories to provide this aggregated view of the market. The clear risk is that it may encourage third party countries to create regional trade repositories, which could undermine global reform efforts by limiting the ability of regulators to quickly and efficiently review aggregated, comprehensive position data for counterparties and underlyings, especially during times of crisis.

Some members of Congress have already begun outreach to their European counterparts to seek a resolution. But the clock is ticking. The European Parliament is poised to adopt counter indemnity language in the final version of its own derivatives reform legislation, which would result in U.S. regulators, like the CFTC and SEC, facing diminished access to information held in overseas repositories – just like their overseas counterparts in the U.S.

Chairman Gensler recently testified before the House Financial Services Committee that the CFTC and SEC agree that indemnification is problematic and suggested two potential exemptions to the enforcement of the provision. The first exemption would apply to situations in which a foreign regulator (third party) requests data from a repository that has dual-registration with regulators in the United States and overseas. The second would apply when a foreign regulator (third party) seeks to obtain information that is held by the CFTC or SEC.

This issue is clearly on the radars of the U.S. agencies, but we believe that more needs to be done. The legal language in Dodd-Frank leaves little room for the regulators to work without Congressional intervention – and the exemptions, while well intentioned, do not solve the problem.

At DTCC, we’ll continue to work closely with lawmakers and regulators in the U.S. and Europe to address this matter because one thing is certain – if no action is taken, transparency for global regulators will be reduced, creating precisely the type of opacity that Dodd-Frank and EMIR have sought to eliminate.

Larry Thompson is managing director and general counsel of The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a non-commercial market utility that serves as the primary post-trade infrastructure organization for the U.S. capital markets.

PUTTING THE BEST FOOT FORWARD, BY CHOICE

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Post by Anshuman Jaswal

The recent City Day organized by SunGard in Mumbai provided interesting insights into India’s equity trading industry. Mr. Damodaran, ex-head of SEBI, the capital market regulator put India’s liberalization and globalization into perspective by pointing out that often in its recent history India has been forced to take actions that are seen to be desirable in hindsight. In 1990-91, it was the precarious forex reserves situation that forced India to open up its economy. Moving on two decades down the line, one hopes that electronic trading in the form of Direct Market Access (DMA), Smart Order Routing (SOR) and algorithmic trading would be something that our capital markets adopt out of choice and because they see the merit in doing so, as opposed to either being forced to do it, or even worse, not doing it at all and facing the possibility of extinction once the global broker-dealers enter the market in a big way. A trend that usually follows the widespread adoption of electronic trading is the concentration of trading, especially in one financial center across a region. In Europe, London happened to be the center that benefited most from the introduction of these technologies. Similarly, markets such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong are adopting high frequency trading in a big way. India cannot afford to be left behind in this context. The same goes for the leading brokerages in the Indian markets. It takes a trading desk between six months to a year to fine-tune its electronic trading capabilities. The longer the delay in getting the buy-in to do so, the lower the chance of success and indeed survival. The buy-side also has to be decisive and quick in its approach.
Moving on to some of the other presentations in the event, there were useful inputs given into the issues that are cropping up in terms of the infrastructure for electronic trading. While NSE has a fast matching engine, the rest of the infrastructure has a long way to go. As pointed out, in Indian centers outside Mumbai the contrast between Indian and international capabilities is even more stark and communication networks have been found lacking. Data quality is also something that brokers, especially the smaller ones are struggling with. In this scenario, it is important that India opens up its markets to globally renowned vendors, while at the same time encouraging its local IT firms to also compete in the market. The Indian market is large enough for a number of firms to participate and be able to meet the various requirements for electronic trading.

Read the blogpost on Celent Asia Blog: http://asiablog.celent.com/?p=368
Watch the interview of Anand Narayan, senior vice president information technology, Tata Capital